In terms of the mechanisms restricting ice melt this season, to the extent that they have anything to do with air temperature, a cool Arctic above 80N means an absence of overrunning air from southern latitudes. Every sharp temp spike up there is simply a wind spike — from the south. While warm sea water incursions matter significantly more than air temps when it comes to sea ice melt, air temps do matter. As an example, 2007’s then-record melt could have taken place without a prolonged high-Arctic warming, wind-generated, during the first months of 2006.
Yes, there were other mechanisms at play during the summer of 2007 that even NASA admitted were simply weather. But a really important element of the causality of 2007’s melt was weather that happened more than a year before. That wintertime “heat wave” has never been written about by NSIDC or any other group as a component cause of 2007. The big question is: Why not?
Meanwhile, returning to 2013, a faster-than-average gyre, as has been seen this summer, equals a buffer against warm overrunning air. And, lo and behold, less melting of sea ice.
The Danish Meteorological Institute and the National Snow and Ice Data Center agree that June was cool in the Arctic. It’s July they cannot agree on. NSIDC bases its analysis on NCEP/NCAR data, which have some interesting characteristics.
When it was initially apparent that a period of mild cooling was taking place in the high Arctic one month ago, I decided to reach out to Walt Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. I wanted him to get on the record about what to me looked like a shift from years past. What at the start of our exchange was the longest period of days cooler than average in the DMI record has since grown from about 60 days to about 100.
Always affable, always reasonable, always intelligent, and yet somehow always alarmist at the same time, Walt was kind enough to oblige. Among the surprising pieces of his end of our e-mail exchange: His willingness to jump on the story that the North Pole cam was capturing something significant in terms of melting. (At first, that was Walt’s claim – he backs down from it later, as you’ll see.) Walt easily, and skillfully, frustrates my desire to get him to show any optimism (or even recognition) of the cooling, and quietly beats the all-melt, all-warming drum throughout. Interestingly, Walt has actually left NSIDC and gone to work at NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies just in the last week. Continue reading
Ask yourself: “When it comes to the climate debate, which side more resembles the Aztecs?”
“Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.” – Samuel Johnson
Yes, and climate alarmism is the new patriotism. As I write this, the most powerful man on Earth, Barack Obama, dogged by a series of history-tarnishing scandals, is choosing this moment to get serious about climate change.
And, sad to say, it is working. He is successfully skating off the thin political ice on which he finds himself. Continue reading
What follows is the next excerpt from my second book on climate, the forthcoming Aztec Nation. To buy my first book, click here.
So, if the United States is on the verge of ceding a good bit of its remaining power to Russia, simply because of the two nations’ opinions about climate and resultant energy choices, it must be doing so on the basis of some kind of higher morality, right?
Sadly, no. The U.S. is about as far from the moral high ground on climate as you can be. Part of that is just the fact that we have created a couple of generations of people who believe that the atmosphere above them is in a state that it has never been in before, which is patently false. Earth was warmer than now 1,000 years ago, 7,000 years ago, and 115,000 years ago – at a minimum. So, if the amount of heat in the system is the same that it has been in the past, how can one call the current conditions “unnatural”? One might just as logically, more logically, call them “natural,” and indeed that is what I do myself.
One analogy is the Sun rising in the morning. What if, by some combination of technology and effort, humanity could somehow make it even more certain that the Sun would rise? Would the fact that one of the reasons that the Sun rose in the morning had to do with humanity’s actions somehow make it a bad thing? Continue reading
(Over the next several weeks, I’ll be posting several excerpts from my forthcoming book, Aztec Nation. The second such excerpt is below. Here’s a link to my first book: clicky.)
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…. – Charles Dickens
How I wish wildfires were the only natural phenomenon employed in the public relations campaign that is global warming alarmism. They are not. A partial list of the other things that nature does that are now presented as unnatural includes the following: tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, droughts, and perfect sunny days with highs in the low 70s. Actually, please forgive me, this last item is not on the list. Sometimes, I get just a little tweaked about all of this – I admit it.
But the other four items are on the list. And the chances of watching national news in the United States and not seeing one of them on any given day is close to non-existent. There are a lot of reasons for this. One is that, after decades of being known as the biggest impediment to any eventual reduction in the emission of greenhouse gases, the United States has a sizable population of people who are eager to atone for this perceived sin. And at least 90 percent of members of the American media fall within this population. Continue reading
Anthony Watts rightly points out that if I wish for people to support my work in progress, I should let them know what it is they are supporting.
While I fought a long and strenuous battle to make Don’t Sell Your Coat as accessible as I possibly could, I am committed to making my next book more so. It is less academic, and more conversational. It has fewer graphs. So, after reading the (mercifully brief) chapter that follows, please do hit the tip jar if you are so inclined.
From Aztec Nation (working title):
Among the results of becoming a person who doubts the mainstream view of climate change have been the following experiences:
- Having my integrity questioned. Despite copious evidence to the contrary, there remains a belief among the public that anyone who dares to question mainstream science on climate change is being funded by Big Oil. The hilarious part, as I pointed out in Don’t Sell Your Coat is that Big Oil has been funding alarmist climate scientists for decades now, to the tune of billions of dollars, and that it has not been doing the same thing for skeptic scientists. The widespread perception when it comes to climate science that the warmists have integrity and the skeptics don’t, while based on faulty logic and bad information, makes being a skeptic something less than fun. I’m not asking you to cry for me, Argentina. But I’d be lying if I said my life got easier when I became a skeptic. The truth is that it became dramatically harder. And the difficulty show no signs of letting up anytime soon. Continue reading
Very rarely, I mention the fact that being a climate change skeptic not only does not pay but actually costs those of us who have taken an unpopular position on the topic. With my next book on the subject sufficiently under way for me to mention it publicly, I am obligated to mention, too, that my tip jar could use a massive influx from as many people who support this work as possible. All donations make it feasible for me to continue my work and feed my children, and every little bit helps. Thanks in advance! — Harold
The year you’re living in, 2013, may be the year that it happened.
What is it? It is the onset of global cooling. How dare I make such a mental leap? How dare I not would be an equally good question.
According to the Danish Meteorological Institute, 2013 is the first year since 1976 when Arctic temperature readings north of 80 degrees latitude sat below the zero-anomaly line, what some would call “normal,” for more than 50 days straight. Getting close to 60, in fact, according to my highly scientific eyeball reading of DMI’s graph that you can click on yourself. Go ahead, click through the last few decades. Are you seeing what I’m seeing? Continue reading
The Antarctic’s annual cycle is its own accordion-like expansion and contraction. But it is dwarfed by the larger expansions and contractions between glacial and interglacial periods during the present ice age.
As many of my readers know, the fact that Antarctic sea ice has steadily grown during the entire satellite record is something that I’ve alluded to frequently in the past. Some of you will know, too, that the temperature at the South Pole has gone down during the same period, as I’ve mentioned that here and elsewhere, including in my book.
Global warming alarmists have, meanwhile, made endless hay out of the fact that ice shelves have broken up during the last couple of decades. I mention in my book that if you could watch time-lase video of Antarctic ice shelves, as seen from space, over the last three million years you would see an accordion being played by a quite energetic player. Out they go, and in they come, out they go, and in they come. One feature that should convince people that climate is not changing outside normal bounds is precisely that ice shelves are continuing to do what they’ve done during the present ice age. This notion that until the last 50 years ice shelves were stable, in other words, is patently anti-scientific. And potentially manipulative and evil, but let’s worry about that another day. Continue reading
A little evening snow in East Greenwich, Rhode Island, on a far gentler night than tonight. Photo by Jeff Stevens.
I live in a historic part of a historic New England town: East Greenwich, Rhode Island, to be precise.
It’s tough to walk five minutes in any direction here without running across a cemetery or two with graves from two or three centuries back. The cemeteries range in size from 20 plots to 2,000.
Our part of town is known as the Hill. You can see it in the picture I chose for the blog today. In fact, the church spire in the background of the photo is the one belonging to our family church, St. Luke’s Episcopal. The open space in the right foreground is Academy Field, where sledding, baseball, soccer, and dog exercising manage to share time and space with admirable ease throughout the year. Continue reading